{"id":5328,"date":"2021-03-31T21:48:15","date_gmt":"2021-04-01T02:48:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/?p=5328"},"modified":"2021-04-01T08:36:16","modified_gmt":"2021-04-01T13:36:16","slug":"its-march-31st-how-is-orange-county-florida-doing-with-covid-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/31\/its-march-31st-how-is-orange-county-florida-doing-with-covid-19\/","title":{"rendered":"It&#8217;s March 31st, how is Orange County Florida doing with COVID-19?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class='__iawmlf-post-loop-links' style='display:none;' data-iawmlf-post-links='[{&quot;id&quot;:259,&quot;href&quot;:&quot;http:\\\/\\\/ww11.doh.state.fl.us\\\/comm\\\/_partners\\\/covid19_report_archive\\\/vaccine\\\/vaccine_report_20210331.pdf&quot;,&quot;archived_href&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/web-wp.archive.org\\\/web\\\/20251115051920\\\/http:\\\/\\\/ww11.doh.state.fl.us\\\/comm\\\/_partners\\\/covid19_report_archive\\\/vaccine\\\/vaccine_report_20210331.pdf&quot;,&quot;redirect_href&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;checks&quot;:[],&quot;broken&quot;:false,&quot;last_checked&quot;:null,&quot;process&quot;:&quot;done&quot;},{&quot;id&quot;:246,&quot;href&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/www.census.gov\\\/quickfacts\\\/orangecountyflorida&quot;,&quot;archived_href&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/web-wp.archive.org\\\/web\\\/20250712042036\\\/https:\\\/\\\/www.census.gov\\\/quickfacts\\\/orangecountyflorida&quot;,&quot;redirect_href&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;checks&quot;:[{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-15 05:56:49&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:403}],&quot;broken&quot;:false,&quot;last_checked&quot;:{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-15 05:56:49&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:403},&quot;process&quot;:&quot;done&quot;},{&quot;id&quot;:260,&quot;href&quot;:&quot;http:\\\/\\\/ww11.doh.state.fl.us\\\/comm\\\/_partners\\\/covid19_report_archive\\\/cases-monitoring-and-pui-information\\\/county-report\\\/county_reports_20210331.pdf&quot;,&quot;archived_href&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/web-wp.archive.org\\\/web\\\/20250807020806\\\/http:\\\/\\\/ww11.doh.state.fl.us\\\/comm\\\/_partners\\\/covid19_report_archive\\\/cases-monitoring-and-pui-information\\\/county-report\\\/county_reports_20210331.pdf&quot;,&quot;redirect_href&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;checks&quot;:[],&quot;broken&quot;:false,&quot;last_checked&quot;:null,&quot;process&quot;:&quot;done&quot;}]'><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/orange_county_florida_cases_and_deaths-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-5329\" src=\"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/orange_county_florida_cases_and_deaths-1.png\" alt=\"Graph showing infections &amp; deaths\" width=\"890\" height=\"504\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/orange_county_florida_cases_and_deaths-1.png 890w, https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/orange_county_florida_cases_and_deaths-1-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/orange_county_florida_cases_and_deaths-1-768x435.png 768w, https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/orange_county_florida_cases_and_deaths-1-500x283.png 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 890px) 100vw, 890px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<strong>Cases<\/strong><br \/>\nDespite vaccination efforts, March had a small spike in cases, most likely due to new more contagious variants of the virus (B.1.1.7) and relaxing of social distancing by the population. It appears we may be reaching the top of this small peak as the the 7-day average of new cases (352 per day) is below the peak. \u00a0 The number of new cases per day is still higher than Aug\/Sep of 2020, which was our previous low point.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p><strong>Median Age of the infected<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Last month the median age of those infected \u00a0 was 38.8. \u00a0 [The median age of Florida residents is 42.2 ] \u00a0 The average age of those infected in the last seven days is 33 years old. This drop in average age is most likely due to high vaccination rates in the 65+ demographic. \u00a0 On March 29th Orange county began vaccinating any adult 40+, and will open eligibility to all adults on April 5th. \u00a0 As all age groups have the opportunity to be vaccinated, I expect the median age to start to rise over time.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/median_age_of_those_infected.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-5330\" src=\"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/median_age_of_those_infected.png\" alt=\"Median age of those infected is 33 years old\" width=\"385\" height=\"233\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/median_age_of_those_infected.png 385w, https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/median_age_of_those_infected-300x182.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 385px) 100vw, 385px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Deaths<\/strong><br \/>\nThe number of deaths per day has decreased to a reported 2.73 per day, (82 total) in March. The summer peak (June 22nd 2020 to July 22nd, 2020) \u00a0 had 6.97 average deaths per day (223 total deaths).<\/p>\n<p><strong>Percent Positivity<\/strong><br \/>\nThese numbers are slightly worse than in February, with only 1 day out of the last 14 under 5%, and 3 days above 7%.  \u00a0 \u00a0 Community spread is not fully under control.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/percent_positivity.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-5331\" src=\"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/percent_positivity.png\" alt=\"Percent Positivity bar graphs\" width=\"980\" height=\"264\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/percent_positivity.png 980w, https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/percent_positivity-300x81.png 300w, https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/percent_positivity-768x207.png 768w, https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/percent_positivity-500x135.png 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 980px) 100vw, 980px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>How many people have been vaccinated<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Florida department of health reports that as of <a href=\"http:\/\/ww11.doh.state.fl.us\/comm\/_partners\/covid19_report_archive\/vaccine\/vaccine_report_20210331.pdf\">March 30th 2021<\/a>, \u00a0 \u00a0 <span dir=\"ltr\">155,111<\/span> Orange County residents \u00a0 (11.1% of the population) have been fully vaccinated (Primarily in the 65+ demographic), and another <span dir=\"ltr\">143,480<\/span> have received their first dose (out of two) of a COVID-19 Vaccine, which will grant partial immunity.  \u00a0 \u00a0 [Full protection is not achieved until two weeks after the second dose, but some protection begins to appear within 10 days of the first dose.]<\/p>\n<p><strong>How many people have been infected<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/quickfacts\/orangecountyflorida\">US Census bureau estimated<\/a> that Orange County Florida has a population of 1,393,452 people (July 1st, 2019). \u00a0 \u00a0 The <a href=\"http:\/\/ww11.doh.state.fl.us\/comm\/_partners\/covid19_report_archive\/cases-monitoring-and-pui-information\/county-report\/county_reports_20210331.pdf\">Florida Department of Health reports<\/a> that \u00a0 that \u00a0 <span dir=\"ltr\">123,352<\/span> \u00a0 cases of COVID-19 (confirmed by either a positive PCR or Antigen test result) have occurred in Orange County so far. \u00a0 \u00a0 That means at least 8.9 percent ( 123352 \/ 1393452 = \u00a0 .08852260 ) of the population has been infected. The actual percentage is likely to be much higher as many asymptomatic cases may never be detected.<\/p>\n<p><strong>How many people have been hospitalized or died<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Of those confirmed infected, 2,575 or \u00a0 2.1 percent ( 2575 \/ 123352 =<br \/>\n.02087521 ) have been hospitalized, and 1,185 have died. \u00a0 The death toll is currently 0.96 percent of all detected cases ( 1185 \/ 123352 = .00960665 \u00a0 ).<\/p>\n<p>Florida average percentages for hospitalizations and deaths are 4.1% and 1.6% so Orange County has done better than the rest of the state of Florida for hospitalizations and mortality.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Predictions for April:<\/strong><br \/>\nCase numbers have spiked upwards slightly in March, but the rate of change has flattened out. I believe the rate of new infections will continue to fall slowly as vaccination efforts begin to catch up with new more infectious variants.<\/p>\n<p>However, I expect that after the initial rush for vaccinations, by the end of April we may have more supply than demand, while 30-50% of the population remains un-vaccinated. [Although a good percentage of this demographic may have some natural immunity from previous infections.] \u00a0 This will lead to case numbers plateauing in the sub-200 per day range near the end of April.<\/p>\n<p>The vaccination efforts should allow the number of deaths to continue to fall, as those most likely to die from an infection are now being actively vaccinated.<\/p>\n<p>[Charts\/Numbers used can be found in this open document spreadsheet: \u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/orange_county_florida-1.ods\">orange_county_florida.ods<\/a> ]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cases Despite vaccination efforts, March had a small spike in cases, most likely due to new more contagious variants of the virus (B.1.1.7) and relaxing of social distancing by the population. It appears we may be reaching the top of &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/31\/its-march-31st-how-is-orange-county-florida-doing-with-covid-19\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[138],"class_list":["post-5328","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commentary","tag-covid-19"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5328","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5328"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5328\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5338,"href":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5328\/revisions\/5338"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5328"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5328"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5328"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}