{"id":5440,"date":"2021-07-02T19:50:02","date_gmt":"2021-07-03T00:50:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/?p=5440"},"modified":"2021-07-03T09:11:33","modified_gmt":"2021-07-03T14:11:33","slug":"its-july-2nd-2021-how-is-orange-county-florida-doing-with-covid-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/2021\/07\/02\/its-july-2nd-2021-how-is-orange-county-florida-doing-with-covid-19\/","title":{"rendered":"It&#8217;s July 2nd 2021, how is Orange County Florida doing with Covid-19?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class='__iawmlf-post-loop-links' style='display:none;' data-iawmlf-post-links='[{&quot;id&quot;:235,&quot;href&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/www.orlandosentinel.com\\\/coronavirus\\\/os-ne-coronavirus-florida-dept-of-health-ends-daily-covid-reports-20210604-nct2aesq2bf47hunelbmmifxha-story.html&quot;,&quot;archived_href&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/web-wp.archive.org\\\/web\\\/20220519021252\\\/https:\\\/\\\/www.orlandosentinel.com\\\/coronavirus\\\/os-ne-coronavirus-florida-dept-of-health-ends-daily-covid-reports-20210604-nct2aesq2bf47hunelbmmifxha-story.html&quot;,&quot;redirect_href&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/www.orlandosentinel.com\\\/2021\\\/06\\\/04\\\/florida-dept-of-health-ends-daily-coronavirus-reports-tracking-cases-deaths\\\/&quot;,&quot;checks&quot;:[{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-22 04:37:36&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-27 22:38:37&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200}],&quot;broken&quot;:false,&quot;last_checked&quot;:{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-27 22:38:37&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},&quot;process&quot;:&quot;done&quot;},{&quot;id&quot;:236,&quot;href&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/www.orlandosentinel.com\\\/coronavirus\\\/os-ne-florida-nursing-home-covid-cases-up-state-restricting-data-20210618-sfnntnsv75hlnarxs6jpqflkhe-story.html&quot;,&quot;archived_href&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/web-wp.archive.org\\\/web\\\/20210707031822\\\/https:\\\/\\\/www.orlandosentinel.com\\\/coronavirus\\\/os-ne-florida-nursing-home-covid-cases-up-state-restricting-data-20210618-sfnntnsv75hlnarxs6jpqflkhe-story.html&quot;,&quot;redirect_href&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/www.orlandosentinel.com\\\/2021\\\/06\\\/18\\\/some-key-data-missing-from-floridas-new-weekly-covid-reports\\\/&quot;,&quot;checks&quot;:[{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-22 04:37:38&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-27 22:38:40&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200}],&quot;broken&quot;:false,&quot;last_checked&quot;:{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-27 22:38:40&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},&quot;process&quot;:&quot;done&quot;},{&quot;id&quot;:202,&quot;href&quot;:&quot;http:\\\/\\\/ww11.doh.state.fl.us\\\/comm\\\/_partners\\\/covid19_report_archive\\\/covid19-data&quot;,&quot;archived_href&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/web-wp.archive.org\\\/web\\\/20260415045316\\\/https:\\\/\\\/ww11.doh.state.fl.us\\\/comm\\\/_partners\\\/covid19_report_archive\\\/covid19-data\\\/&quot;,&quot;redirect_href&quot;:&quot;http:\\\/\\\/ww11.doh.state.fl.us\\\/comm\\\/_partners\\\/covid19_report_archive\\\/covid19-data\\\/&quot;,&quot;checks&quot;:[{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-22 04:37:38&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-27 22:38:39&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-03 01:15:57&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200}],&quot;broken&quot;:false,&quot;last_checked&quot;:{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-03 01:15:57&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},&quot;process&quot;:&quot;done&quot;},{&quot;id&quot;:237,&quot;href&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/www.washingtonpost.com\\\/health\\\/interactive\\\/2021\\\/covid-rates-unvaccinated-people&quot;,&quot;archived_href&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;redirect_href&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;checks&quot;:[],&quot;broken&quot;:false,&quot;last_checked&quot;:null,&quot;process&quot;:&quot;done&quot;}]'><\/div>\n<p>Well, it&#8217;s hard to tell for sure, as the Florida Department of health <a href=\"https:\/\/www.orlandosentinel.com\/coronavirus\/os-ne-coronavirus-florida-dept-of-health-ends-daily-covid-reports-20210604-nct2aesq2bf47hunelbmmifxha-story.html\">has stopped issuing daily reports<\/a>, and has switched to weekly reports. They have also <a href=\"https:\/\/www.orlandosentinel.com\/coronavirus\/os-ne-florida-nursing-home-covid-cases-up-state-restricting-data-20210618-sfnntnsv75hlnarxs6jpqflkhe-story.html\">stopped releasing per-county death numbers,<\/a> among other omissions and simplifications. \u00a0 You may notice that the graph I have to display is simplified this month.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/orange_county_florida_cases-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-5442\" src=\"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/orange_county_florida_cases-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"765\" height=\"590\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/orange_county_florida_cases-1.png 765w, https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/orange_county_florida_cases-1-300x231.png 300w, https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/orange_county_florida_cases-1-389x300.png 389w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 765px) 100vw, 765px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nWhat we do know is that the number of cases per week had been decreasing since mid-April, but in the last two weeks the number of cases per week has started to increase again. On June 1st the 7-day average was 145 cases per day, while as of July 2nd it is 171 cases per day, and the case positivity rate has raised to 5.3%.<\/p>\n<p>Historically, Orange County had a case fatality rate of near 1%, so that would indicate about 1.7 deaths per day, but those numbers are no longer part of the <a href=\"http:\/\/ww11.doh.state.fl.us\/comm\/_partners\/covid19_report_archive\/covid19-data\/\">FDOH weekly reports<\/a> so I have no way of knowing if the case fatality rate has started to drop due to vaccinations of high-risk groups or has increased due to the Delta variant.<\/p>\n<p>We have vaccinated (at least a first dose) <span id=\"page19R_mcid204\" class=\"markedContent\"><span dir=\"ltr\">718,103<\/span><\/span> people (out of a population of <span id=\"page19R_mcid203\" class=\"markedContent\"><span dir=\"ltr\">1,457,445, or 49% of the total<\/span><\/span>). If you discount children 12 and under who are not yet eligible for vaccination, Orange County has vaccinated 58% of the eligible population. \u00a0 We vaccinated \u00a0 65,206 people in the month of June. (Compared to 88,482 in May and \u00a0 154,176 in April.)<\/p>\n<p>The rate of vaccination has slowed and I expect it to continue to slow, while the total number climbs upward slowly. I expect that fewer than 60 thousand people will be vaccinated in July.<\/p>\n<p>I believe the uptick in case numbers is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/health\/interactive\/2021\/covid-rates-unvaccinated-people\/\">primarily among the un-vaccinated 51% of the population<\/a>, due to a combination of the more infectious Delta variant and relaxation of mask usage and social distancing.<\/p>\n<p>[Charts\/Numbers used can be found in this open document spreadsheet: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/orange_county_florida.ods\">orange_county_florida.ods<\/a> ]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Well, it&#8217;s hard to tell for sure, as the Florida Department of health has stopped issuing daily reports, and has switched to weekly reports. They have also stopped releasing per-county death numbers, among other omissions and simplifications. \u00a0 You may &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/2021\/07\/02\/its-july-2nd-2021-how-is-orange-county-florida-doing-with-covid-19\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[138],"class_list":["post-5440","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commentary","tag-covid-19"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5440","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5440"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5440\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5446,"href":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5440\/revisions\/5446"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5440"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5440"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.summet.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5440"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}