The rate of new cases had a slight rise in September, and continues to be on a slight upward trend in October. This upward trend accelerated in November. Orange County is averaging 469 confirmed new cases per day over the last two weeks (compared to 224 in the same period in October). While not quite as bad as the summer peak of 600-800 per day in July, these numbers are going in the wrong direction.
We had 96 people die from Covid-19 in Orange County in the last month (slightly better than the 105 in the prior month) and the total death count is at 642.
The percent positivity metric has been above 5% in 14 of the last 14 days, indicating that community spread is not under control.
How many people have been infected
The US Census bureau estimated that Orange County Florida has a population of 1,393,452 people (July 1st, 2019). The Florida Department of health reports today that 55,966 cases of COVID-19 (confirmed by either a positive PCR or Antigen test result) have occurred in Orange County so far. That means at least 4 percent (55,966 / 1393452 = .04016356) of the population has been infected.
The actual number is likely to be significantly higher, as many infections are asymptomatic, or not confirmed with a lab test. The CDC estimates that there may be 8 undetected cases for every confirmed case, putting an upper bound of 32% of the population of Orange County as already having been infected.
How many people have been hospitalized or died
Of those confirmed infected, 1,759 or 3.1 percent ( 1759 / 55966 = .03142979 ) have been hospitalized, and 642 have died. The death toll is currently 1.1 percent of all detected cases ( 642 / 55,966 = .01147125 ).
Florida average percentages for hospitalizations and deaths are 5.6 % and 1.9% so Orange County has done better than the rest of the state of Florida for hospitalizations and mortality so far.
Median Age of the infected
Last month the median age of those infected was 30, while 35 was the median age over the last 7 days. [The median age of Florida residents is 42.2 ]
Orange County schools (K-12) currently have 85,000 face to face students (41% of their total 206,000 students). Most of the infections in schools appear to be from community spread outside of the schools.
So far they have only announced 1154 confirmed cases on their dashboard. Last month they had 563, so they have gained 591 cases this month. [The increase in these numbers mirror the community spread numbers…]
Predictions for next month:
Case numbers have risen quickly this month. I expect them to continue to rise, especially a few weeks after Thanksgiving. The median age of infected has gone up to 35 (a 5 year increase since last month), and the number of cases has risen, so I anticipate seeing more deaths in December than in November.
[Charts/Numbers used can be found in this open document spreadsheet: orange_county_florida ]