Cases
Despite vaccination efforts, March had a small spike in cases, most likely due to new more contagious variants of the virus (B.1.1.7) and relaxing of social distancing by the population. It appears we may be reaching the top of this small peak as the the 7-day average of new cases (352 per day) is below the peak. The number of new cases per day is still higher than Aug/Sep of 2020, which was our previous low point.
Median Age of the infected
Last month the median age of those infected was 38.8. [The median age of Florida residents is 42.2 ] The average age of those infected in the last seven days is 33 years old. This drop in average age is most likely due to high vaccination rates in the 65+ demographic. On March 29th Orange county began vaccinating any adult 40+, and will open eligibility to all adults on April 5th. As all age groups have the opportunity to be vaccinated, I expect the median age to start to rise over time.
Deaths
The number of deaths per day has decreased to a reported 2.73 per day, (82 total) in March. The summer peak (June 22nd 2020 to July 22nd, 2020) had 6.97 average deaths per day (223 total deaths).
Percent Positivity
These numbers are slightly worse than in February, with only 1 day out of the last 14 under 5%, and 3 days above 7%. Community spread is not fully under control.
How many people have been vaccinated
The Florida department of health reports that as of March 30th 2021, 155,111 Orange County residents (11.1% of the population) have been fully vaccinated (Primarily in the 65+ demographic), and another 143,480 have received their first dose (out of two) of a COVID-19 Vaccine, which will grant partial immunity. [Full protection is not achieved until two weeks after the second dose, but some protection begins to appear within 10 days of the first dose.]
How many people have been infected
The US Census bureau estimated that Orange County Florida has a population of 1,393,452 people (July 1st, 2019). The Florida Department of Health reports that that 123,352 cases of COVID-19 (confirmed by either a positive PCR or Antigen test result) have occurred in Orange County so far. That means at least 8.9 percent ( 123352 / 1393452 = .08852260 ) of the population has been infected. The actual percentage is likely to be much higher as many asymptomatic cases may never be detected.
How many people have been hospitalized or died
Of those confirmed infected, 2,575 or 2.1 percent ( 2575 / 123352 =
.02087521 ) have been hospitalized, and 1,185 have died. The death toll is currently 0.96 percent of all detected cases ( 1185 / 123352 = .00960665 ).
Florida average percentages for hospitalizations and deaths are 4.1% and 1.6% so Orange County has done better than the rest of the state of Florida for hospitalizations and mortality.
Predictions for April:
Case numbers have spiked upwards slightly in March, but the rate of change has flattened out. I believe the rate of new infections will continue to fall slowly as vaccination efforts begin to catch up with new more infectious variants.
However, I expect that after the initial rush for vaccinations, by the end of April we may have more supply than demand, while 30-50% of the population remains un-vaccinated. [Although a good percentage of this demographic may have some natural immunity from previous infections.] This will lead to case numbers plateauing in the sub-200 per day range near the end of April.
The vaccination efforts should allow the number of deaths to continue to fall, as those most likely to die from an infection are now being actively vaccinated.
[Charts/Numbers used can be found in this open document spreadsheet: orange_county_florida.ods ]