It’s March 1st 2021, how is Orange County Florida doing with Covid-19?

The 7-day average of new cases (320 per day) has continued to fall in February, but the rate of change has started to flatten out. The number of new cases per day is still higher than Aug/Sep of 2020, which was our previous low point.

The number of deaths per day has decreased to a reported 5.21 per day, (146 total) in February. The summer peak (June 22nd 2020 to July 22nd, 2020)   had 6.97 average deaths per day (223 total deaths).

In the state of Florida overall, the number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 is on a downward slope, and we appear to have passed the peak of deaths for the post holiday surge.

Percent Positivity
These numbers are better than they have been for the last few months with 5 days out of the last 14 under 5%, and the remaining days all under 7%.   Community spread is not fully under control but it is going in the right direction.

How many people have been vaccinated

The Florida department of health reports that as of February 27th 2021,   82,168 Orange County residents   (5.9% of the population) have been fully vaccinated, and another 45,773 have received their first dose (out of two) of a COVID-19 Vaccine, which will grant partial immunity.     [Full protection is not achieved until two weeks after the second dose, but some protection begins to appear within 10 days of the first dose.]

How many people have been infected

The US Census bureau estimated that Orange County Florida has a population of 1,393,452 people (July 1st, 2019).     The Florida Department of health reports that   114,322 cases of COVID-19 (confirmed by either a positive PCR or Antigen test result) have occurred in Orange County so far.     That means at least 8.2 percent ( 114322 / 1393452 = .08204229 ) of the population has been infected. The actual percentage is likely to be much higher as many asymptomatic cases may never be detected.

How many people have been hospitalized or died

Of those confirmed infected, 2,382 or   2.1 percent ( 2382 / 114322 =
.02083588 ) have been hospitalized, and 1,094 have died.   The death toll is currently 0.96 percent of all detected cases ( 1094 / 114322 = .00956946   ).

Florida average percentages for hospitalizations and deaths are 4.2% and 1.6% so Orange County has done better than the rest of the state of Florida for hospitalizations and mortality.

Median Age of the infected

Last month the median age of those infected was 36.7 while 38.8 was the median age over the last 14 days.   [The median age of Florida residents is 42.2 ] Vaccinations of those over 65 may prevent deaths, but has not exhibited itself with a sharp downward trend in the age of those with positive test results.

Orange County Schools
Orange county schools resumed on January 4th, currently with 114,000 of their 206,000 students in face to face education. On January 31st 2021,   they had a total of 3,924 confirmed cases, which raised to 4,799 by March 1st,   a gain of 875 cases (lower than the 1,828 new cases in January).     The number of cases in the K-12 schools has reflected community spread primarily outside of the schools, and does not appear to be a major driver of new infections.

Predictions for March:
Case numbers have dropped quickly in February, but the rate of change has flattened out. I hope they will continue to fall, but expect they will remain steady or even gradually rise as more transmissible strains of the virus spread. (Spring break is coming up, after all….) I expect the average age of those infected to start to drop as the vaccination effort begins to take effect in the older demographics.

The vaccination efforts should allow the number of deaths to continue to fall, as those most likely to die from an infection are now being actively vaccinated.


[Charts/Numbers used can be found in this open document spreadsheet:    orange_county_florida.ods ]

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