It’s June 1st 2021, how is Orange County Florida doing with COVID-19?

Continuing vaccination efforts have continued the decline in cases since the mid-April mini-spike.   The 7-day average of new cases (145 per day) has reached the level achieved in Aug/Sep of 2020, which was our previous low point.   These new cases are primarily occurring within the remaining unvaccinated population.

Median Age of the infected

At the end of April, the median age of those infected   was   32.7 years old. Over the last seven days the average age has risen slightly to 33.8, and I expect this average age to increase as more children in the 12-16 age group are vaccinated.

The number of deaths per day has held relatively steady at a reported 1.93 per day, (60 total) in May. (Compared to 2 per day in April.)   The summer peak (June 22nd 2020 to July 22nd, 2020)   had 6.97 average deaths per day (223 total deaths), so the number of deaths is around 25% of our worst month. Total reported COVID-19 deaths overall in Orange County   Florida is at 1309 as of June 1st 2021.

Percent Positivity
These numbers are significantly better than in April, with every day out of the last 14 under 5%, and 13 days under 4%.     Community spread is starting to be under control.

This is a significant improvement over the end of last month:

How many people have been vaccinated

The Florida department of health reports that as of May 27th 2021, 510,582 Orange County residents   (36.6% of the total population) have been fully vaccinated. Children under the age of 12 are not yet eligible for vaccination, but also have minimal direct health risks from catching covid-19 (other than the risk of transmission to others.)

The rate of vaccination uptake has slowed, large community vaccination sites are being shuttered and replaced by smaller pop-up clinics at targeted sites as well as distribution via local pharmacy’s.

Predictions for June:

I expect that daily case numbers will decline in June, hopefully going below 100-per day by the end of the month. Deaths are also likely to slowly reduce over time. My prediction would be between 30-45 deaths in June (1-1.5 per day).

[Charts/Numbers used can be found in this open document spreadsheet: orange_county_florida.ods   ]

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